A Survey of Expert Opinion and Its Probabilistic Evaluation for Specific Aspects of the SNR-300 Risk Study

Eduard Hofer; Vijen Javeri; Horst L&ouml;ffler; Dankward F. Struwe

doi:dx.doi.org/10.13182/NT85-A33554

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A Survey of Expert Opinion and Its Probabilistic Evaluation for Specific Aspects of the SNR-300 Risk Study

Eduard Hofer, Vijen Javeri, Horst Löffler, Dankward F. Struwe

Nuclear Technology / Volume 68 / Number 2 / February 1985 / Pages 180-225

Technical Paper / Fabrication of Components of the Creys-Malville Plant / Nuclear Safety / dx.doi.org/10.13182/NT85-A33554

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Within the framework of the risk-oriented analysis for the Schneller Natriumgekühlter Reaktor (SNR)-300, a survey of expert opinion was conducted in 1982 to obtain a probability distribution for the work energy release caused by an unprotected loss-of-flow (ULOF) accident. A comprehensive questionnaire on the relevant phenomena was distributed to experts from 18 organizations involved in fast breeder safety. Basic to the probabilistic procedure are the two customary concepts of probability:

probability in its interpretation as limit of relative frequency
probability in its interpretation as degree of belief.

As one of the results for the ULOF accident, a subjective estimate of 0.3 % was arrived at on the basis of the experts’ opinions for the probability of the work energy release exceeding the design value of the SNR-300 reactor vessel and plug.