WASH-1400: Quantifying the Uncertainties

For the specific reactors evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400), quantified uncertainties in the calculated consequences and probabilities were reported, along with median estimates. The WASH-1400 evaluation of early fatalities gave these uncertainties as multiplicative factors of (, 4) on consequences and (, 5) on probabilities. Accounting for factors that were not considered, these uncertainties are better stated as multiplicative factors of (, 15) and (, 20) for consequences and probabilities, respectively. In addition to this change in uncertainty, the median values of early fatalities reported in WASH-1400 may be too high by factors of 5 for consequences and 12 for probabilities. Thus, a new upper bound is found that is less than that stated in WASH-1400.