Energy Modeling and Forecasting at the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration

The application of a combined set of energy and economic models describing the complex interactions of the nation’s energy system improved the planning processes at the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration for new technology development. The models include econometric techniques for macroeconomic projections, input-output techniques for sector detail, linear programming approaches for resource allocation, and accounting tools for other physical constraints. Comparison studies on the use of energy prices alone versus a combination of energy prices and new technology show that new technology permits higher gross national product growth rate, more jobs, lower delivered energy prices, and improved energy-economic efficiency.