American Nuclear Society
Home

Home / Publications / Journals / Nuclear Science and Engineering / Volume 200 / Number 6

Importance Sampling for Monte Carlo Dynamic Event Tree Analysis of Accident Scenarios in New-Generation Nuclear Power Plants

Leonardo Miqueles, Ibrahim Ahmed, Francesco Di Maio, Enrico Zio

Nuclear Science and Engineering / Volume 200 / Number 6 / June 2026 / Pages 1296-1322

Research Article / dx.doi.org/10.1080/00295639.2025.2516860

Received:January 22, 2025
Accepted:May 9, 2025
Published:April 28, 2026

New-generation Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) may be exposed to unknown hazards due to novel design-specific features. These hazards may lead to unexpected accident scenarios. In this paper, we develop a framework to integrate Importance Sampling (IS) in Monte Carlo Dynamic Event Tree (MCDET) analysis to efficiently explore potential accident scenarios in NPPs. The framework, called IS-MCDET, accounts for the specific features of new-design safety protection systems. The use of the proposed framework for scenario exploration is shown for a case study concerning the analysis of loss-of-coolant accident scenarios in a small modular dual fluid reactor equipped with a new-design auxiliary cooling system.