Prediction Uncertainty Evaluation Methods of Core Performance Parameters in Large Liquid-Metal Fast Breeder Reactors

Formulas for predicting the uncertainty of neutronic performance parameters are derived for three methods: the bias factor method, the adjustment method, and the combined method. The prediction uncertainties are obtained by including both experimental and method errors. The adjustment method, in principle, yields the same uncertainty as the combined method. The derived formulas are applied to a large homogeneous l000-MW(electric) liquid-metal fast breeder reactor core.