Methodology of Internal Assessment of Uncertainty and Extension to Neutron Kinetics/Thermal-Hydraulics Coupled Codes

The best-estimate calculation results from complex system codes are affected by approximations that are unpredictable without the use of computational tools that account for the various sources of uncertainty.

The code with (the capability of) internal assessment of uncertainty (CIAU) has been previously proposed by the University of Pisa to realize the integration between a qualified system code and an uncertainty methodology and to supply proper uncertainty bands each time a nuclear power plant (NPP) transient scenario is calculated. The derivation of the methodology and the results achieved by the use of CIAU are discussed to demonstrate the main features and capabilities of the method.

In a joint effort between the University of Pisa and The Pennsylvania State University, the CIAU method has been recently extended to evaluate the uncertainty of coupled three-dimensional neutronics/thermal-hydraulics calculations. The result is CIAU-TN. The feasibility of the approach has been demonstrated, and sample results related to the turbine trip transient in the Peach Bottom NPP are shown. Notwithstanding that the full implementation and use of the procedure requires a database of errors not available at the moment, the results give an idea of the errors expected from the present computational tools.