Event Sequences and Consequence Spectrum: A Methodology for Probabilistic Transient Analysis

This work presents a new general methodology called Event Sequences and Consequence Spectrum, which is the result of the synthesis between the Response Surface Methodology for the simulation of system physical behavior and the Logical Analytical Methodology for the generation of logical structures in system reliability studies. The connection of the logical to the physical aspects allows the investigation of the physically possible accident temporal sequences, their dynamic consequence spectrum, and the associated probability of occurrence. An exemplificative application derived from the liquid-metal fast breeder reactor core accident problematic is described extensively, pointing out the importance of the proposed approach for an exhaustive dynamic analysis of incident scenarios.